When Insanity becomes the norm

The unanimous endorsement of the 91 year old Robert Mugabe as the Zanu PF’s candidate in the 2018 elections can only deepen the economic malaise faced by the country. Mugabe has ruled Zimbabwe with an iron fist since the country’s independence from Britain in 1980.

The once bread basket of Africa has been turned into a nation of vendors and beggars with over 85% of the working population in the informal sector, yet the official unemployment rate is 5%, the same as the US which has achieved NAIRU a rate that is happily low, but not so low that the economy and job market risk overheating and causing inflation. The realistic figure in Zimbabwe adds to 90% unemployment, the 2016 outlook is bleak with more hardships and company closures expected.

South Africa’s GDP per capita of US$6618 is almost 7 times higher than Zimbabwe’s US$953 and the country’s US$4 billion budget for 2016 is by far smaller than the annual turnover of South Africa largest supermarket chain “ Shoprite Checkers”  with a turnover of US$8 billion.

The world has forgotten the plight of the Zimbabweans, as the focus has shifted to Syria and “Daesh”/ISIS which have become the greatest threat to the modern world.

Zimbabwe’s adoption of the multicurrency system (unofficial dollarisation as all government business is quoted in USD) managed to eradicate hyperinflation which reached world records in economic history and the local currency was phased out at Z$35 quad trillion to US$1 with the inflation rate having peaked at 79.6 billion percent. However, the continued strengthening of the US dollar (USD) and the recent 25 basis points interest hike by the US Fed, has had a knock-on effect on the depressed  manufacturing activity in Zimbabwe. The country’s exports have lost their export competitiveness. As these goods become expensive, we forecast more factory closures in 2016 due to idle capacity and liquidity constraints, increasing unemployment and denting government coffers in lost tax revenue. Already the government is struggling to pay salaries and bonuses to its employees.

The leadership is bankrupt of ideas to resuscitate the economy as intra party factional fights take centre stage. All and sundry are positioning themselves for the post-Mugabe era with the two opposing factions led by the president’s wife Dr Grace Mugabe and the Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa.

With estimates of over 3 million Zimbabweans in South Africa and abroad, people will continue to vote with their feet and 2016 will be no different as government intensifies retrenchments in the public service owing to a bloated public service and inability to pay salaries, the only hope in Zimbabwe is in God’s hands. How much longer will this hell on earth continue? The ever splitting opposition is an accomplice in the continued suffering of Zimbabweans as they have failed to present an alternative voice and leadership.

It is times like these that we need to appreciate the Mo Ibrahim Africa prize awarded to Africa’s former leaders. Nelson Mandela gave up office after one term and proved there is life after office for former presidents. Africa’s leaders should not hold their countries at ransom for their own selfish interests.

The trend continues with Burundi’s Nkurunzinza risking a civil war in the country for the sake of a third term. Kagame in Rwanda has changed the constitution and possibly will extend his rule until 2034 having been in power since 1994 at the end of the Rwandan genocide.  Jose Eduardo dos Santos in Angola has been ruling since 1979, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea and Paul Biya of Cameroon since 1982. Yet the peaceful transfer of power in Nigeria, Botswana, and Tanzania stands as a beacon of hope in a continent of sad realities.

Africa is home to the world’s youngest population, yet it is ruled by the oldest leaders and dictators of this world. African dictators should pave the way for the new generation to take over and inject fresh ideas for the continent to prosper, their role should be an advisory one as espoused in the group of elders and strive to silence the guns in the continent and eradicate extremism.